Intelligence and science are both facing increasing demands for answers that neither can or should provide, at least not in the way policymakers and public opinion often expect. The twentieth-century's defined and knowable threats are gone. This book is one of the first books to outline this change and its profound implications. The time has come not to bridge this divide, but instead to move beyond it to develop new forms for discovering, understanding, and reactingto the emerging challenges of a globalized yet fragmenting world.

• 1. Introduction: The Odd Twins of Uncertainty


• 2. Framing the Divide


• 3. What Is Analysis? Roads Not Taken


• 4. Intelligence Challenges in Scientific Research


• 5. Exploring Other Domains - Coauthored with Tyler H. Lippert, PhD, JD.


• 6. Common Core Issues: Intelligence Analysis, Medicine, and Policy Analysis


• 7. Challenges for Intelligence


• 8. Politicization: Disseminating and Distorting Knowledge


• 9. Beyond the Divide: Framing and Assessing Risks under Prevailing Uncertainty

Wilhelm Agrell is Professor of Intelligence Analysis at Lund University, Sweden and Visiting Professor at the Swedish National Defence College, Stockholm. He has a background in Swedish intelligence and military service in the Middle East. As an academic scholar, he received a Ph.D. in history at Lund University in 1985 and has written over 25 books, primarily dealing with Cold War history and Swedish security. He has been active in establishing intelligence analysis as an academic field and became the first Scandinavian professor in the subject in 2006. In addition to his academic work, he has also written several novels, some of which were translated into Finnish and German.
Gregory Treverton is Director of the RAND Corporation's Center for Global Risk and Security and a Visiting Scholar at the Swedish National Defence College, Stockholm. In government, he has served the first Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, the National Security Council, and as Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council. He has taught at Harvard University and Columbia University as well as the RAND Graduate School. He is the author or editor of three dozen books and major monographs, principally on intelligence, strategy, nuclear issues, Europe, and Latin America.