A practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations. Geist argues that artificial intelligence could make a huge impact on deterrence and strategic stability even if it does not render retaliatory forces vulnerable.

Edward Geist is a Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).

• Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear Dilemma


• The Emerging Strategic Environment


• From Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon Realities


• No Place to Hide?


• Recipe for a WOPR


• Fog-of-War Machines


• Strategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant World


• Conclusion: A Case for (Tempered) Optimism


• Appendix A: The Mathematics of Tracking


• Appendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception


• Appendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological Confrontation


• Index