The purpose of this book is to provide objective analysis of the Japanese government's prospects of success in the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia over four islands off the northeast coast of Hokkaido . Based on careful consideration of a range of historical, economic, security, and social factors, it is boldly argued that the likelihood of Russia returning all four of the islands is approximately zero. What is more, going beyond other analyses, it is demonstrated that this conclusion applies, not only to the present, but also to any plausible future scenario. This conclusion has major implications for international relations within the Asia-Pacific region.

James D.J. Brown is Assistant Professor in Political Science at Temple University, Japan.

1. Introduction 2. History and International Law 3. Economic Factors 4. National Security 5. Social Considerations and Public Opinion 6. The Northern Delusion 7. Conclusion