Get a flying headstart on trend trading with this comprehensive how-to guide

The Universal Tactics of Successful Trend Trading: Finding Opportunity in Uncertainty delivers powerful and practical advice for the serious trend trader. Using the principles identified in The Universal Principles of Successful Trading, author Brent Penfold shows curious investors how to become a long-term winner with tried-and-true trend trading methodologies.

The book includes in-depth and comprehensive treatments of topics like:

· Why trend trading is so appealing

· Popular and effective trend trading strategies

· How to measure risk

· Common trend trading mistakes and how to avoid them

Investors and readers will also discover the importance of risk, and how to judge outcomes and strategies on a risk-adjusted basis.

Perfect for anyone interested in trading successfully, The Universal Tactics of Successful Trend Trading is a key strategy guide that belongs on the shelf of anyone involved in the buying and selling of financial securities.

Acknowledgements xiii

Preface xv

Introduction xix

Chapter 1 The Paradox 1

Nirvana and Despair 1

It's Also a Confusing Time 2

How I Can Help You 3

How to Trade Successfully 4

Summary 4

Chapter 2 Key Messages 5

Knowledge 6

Risk 24

Application 36

Execution 54

Summary 63

Chapter 3 The Appeal of Trend Trading 64

It's a Punch and Judy Show 64

What is Trend Trading? 65

Why are Trends so Important? 67

The Appeal of Trend Trading 67

Summary 119

Chapter 4 Why Do Trends Exist? 120

Confusion Reigns 120

Behavioural Finance 120

Path Dependency 125

And the Winner is? 126

Summary 126

Chapter 5 Why Do So Many Fail? 127

Science Says We Can't Lose 127

Overview of Trend Trading 127

WhydosoManyFailatit? 130

Variability Kills Indicators 137

Popular Indicators 137

Rsi 139

Strategy Robust Review 139

Rtt 140

Traders Always Change Variable Values 156

Universe of Alternative Equity Curves, Expectancies and ROR 156

Best Set of Variable Values Always Change 158

Know Your Strategy's Universe of Alternative Equity Curve's Upper and Lower Bands 160

Stratgey Robustness Review 161

The More Variables, the More Alternatives, the More Risk 161

Variable and Subjective Tools 163

Independent Objective Tools 164

So, What to Do? 165

Summary 165

Chapter 6 Strategies 167

Markets 168

Trading Naked without Technical Analysis 169

Trend-Trading Strategies 177

Momentum Trend Trading 177

Relative Strength Trend Trading 178

Hypothetical Results 180

Relative Momentum Trend Trading 180

Absolute Momentum Trend Trading 195

Retracement Trend Trading 223

Return of Random Trend Trader (2020) 230

Summary 232

Chapter 7 Measuring Risk 234

How to Measure Strategy Performance 234

Risk-Adjusted Return Measurements 235

Standard Deviation-Proxy for Risk 238

The Ulcer Index-a Superior Risk Proxy 245

The Ulcer Performance Index-a Superior Risk-Adjusted Return Measurement 246

Not all Strategies are Created Equal 257

Summary 259

Chapter 8 Moving Forward 260

The Toolkit 260

Portfolio Construction 261

Data 263

Software 263

Attributes of Winning Strategies 264

Strategy Review 267

Strategy Benchmark 279

Strategy Development 300

Summary 302

Chapter 9 Back to the Future 303

Strategy Development 303

Find a Methodology 304

Code the Methodology 311

Review the Methodology 312

Compare the Methodology 312

Adjust the Methodology 314

Equity Curve Stability Review 359

Sensible Trading Destination 360

Drawdown 361

Charles Dow (1851-1902) 364

Back to the Future to Move Forward 364

Embrace Diversification 365

Thank You 365

Appendix A Literature on Trend Trading 368

Cowles and Jones (1933) 368

Levy (1967) 368

Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) 369

Asness, Liew and Stevens (1997) 369

Rouwenhorst and Geert (1998) 369

LeBaron (1999) 370

Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999) 370

Rouwenhorst (1999) 370

Griffin, Ji and Martin (2003) 370

Hwang and George (2004) 370

Wilcox and Crittenden (2005) 371

Faber (2006) 371

Szakmary, Shen and Sharma (2010) 371

Liu, Liu and Ma (2010) 371

Hurst, Ooi and Pedersen (2010) 372

Moskowitz, Ooi, Hua and Pedersen (2011) 372

Antonacci (2012) 372

Luu and Yu (2012) 372

Hurst, Ooi and Pedersen (2012) 373

Lempérière, Deremble, Seager, Potters and Bouchard (2014) 373

Greyserman and Kaminski (2014) 373

Clare, Seaton, Smith and Thomas (2014) 373

Glabadanidis (2016) 374

Georgopoulou and Wang (2016) 374

Hamill, Rattray and Van Hemert (2016) 374

D'Souza, Srichanachaichok, Wang and Yao (2016) 374

Geczy and Samonov (2017) 375

Hurst, Ooi and Pedersen (2017) 375

Index 377

BRENT PENFOLD is a full-time trader, author, educator and advisor. He began his career in 1983 as an institutional dealer with Bank America and today specializes in trading global forex, index and commodity markets. He is the author of two Wiley books, The Universal Principles of Successful Trading (2010) and Trading the SPI (2005). Brent publishes daily newsletters for active futures traders and is a popular and sought-after international speaker.