This Adelphi book argues that China's military modernisation has changed the cross-strait military balance, and the ability of the US to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan may have evaporated by 2030. Taylor calls for the introduction of a narrower set of formal crisis-management mechanisms designed to navigate a major Taiwan crisis.

Brendan Taylor is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University. He has published widely on security architecture in the Asia-Pacific, and is the author of The Four Flashpoints: How Asia Goes to War (La Trobe University Press).

Introduction 1. A Shifting Status Quo 2. A Complex Balance of Power 3. Tipping Points 4. Policy Options