• Contents: (Level 1)


• Introduction (Level 1)


• Chapter One: The Problem: Fateful Decisions in Uncertainty (Level 1)


• A Global most likely Scenario (Level 2)


• Russia: Working Authoritarianism (Level 3)


• China: Strong State (Level 3)


• Making Decisions in this most likely Future (Level 2)


• Can we do better? (Level 2)


• Chapter Two: Potential Applications: Historical Cases (Level 1)


• The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Level 2)


• The Failure of the Doha Round of Trade Negotiations (Level 2)


• The Terrorist Attacks of 9/11 (Level 2)


• The US Invasion of Iraq (Level 2)


• The Arab Spring (Level 2)


• Obama Grand Strategy (Level 2)


• The Syrian Civil War (Level 2)


• Chapter Three: Value of Scenarios (Level 1)


• What about Prediction? (Level 2)


• Timing is almost everything (Level 2)


• Beyond Timing: the Importance of Process (Level 2)


• What's a good set of Scenarios? (Level 2)


• Chapter Four: The Scenario Construction Process (Level 1)


• Design of Scenario Process (Level 2)


• Selecting Participants for Scenario Workshops (Level 2)


• Pre-Workshop Research on Drivers of Change (Level 2)


• Drivers Paper: (Level 2)


• China 2020 (Level 3)


• Ukraine 2020 (Level 3)


• The Scenarios Process: Syria (Level 2)


• How to Facilitate (Level 2)


• Composing the Scenario Narrative (Level 2)


• Some Lessons Learned (Level 2)


• Traps (Level 2)


• Chapter Five: Future Applications and Policy Process (Level 1)

Professor for Global Affairs, New York University Center for Global Affairs

Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.