In this shocking work, Posner reveals to an unsuspecting public that catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated.

Richard A. Posner is Judge of the U.S. Court Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, and a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School. He is the author of numerous books, including Overcoming Law a New York Times Book Review editors' choices for best book of 1995 and An Affair of State, one of their choices for Best Book of the Year in 1999.

• Introduction


• What is catastrophe?


• The organization of this book


• Some useful disctinctions


• 1. What are the catastrohpic risks, and how catastrophic are they?


• Natural catastrophes


• Scientific accidents


• Other unintended man-made catastrophes


• Intentional catastrophes


• Catastrophic synergies and lesser-included catastrophes


• 2. Why so little is being done about the catastrophic risks


• Cultural factors


• Psychological factors


• Economic factors


• 3. How to evaluate the catastrophic risks and the possible responses to them


• The difference cost-benefit analysis can make: the case of RHIC


• A modest version of the precautionary principle


• Discounting to present value


• Taxes, subsidies, and options: the case of global warming


• Valuing human lives


• Risk versus uncertainty


• Coping with uncertainty


• Politics, expertise, and neutrality: RHIC revisited


• Summary


• 4. How to reduce the catastrophic risks


• Institutional reforms


• Fiscal tools: a recap


• Some hypothetical regulatory policies


• Conclusion


• Notes


• Index